One way to explore the future of priorities research is to draw parallels with how philosophy has historically evolved into formal scientific disciplines. This approach could help estimate how much our current understanding of impartial priorities might change, informing funding decisions and research agendas within the effective altruism community.

Understanding the Historical Parallel

Philosophy often precedes scientific fields—like physics emerging from natural philosophy. Similarly, priorities research might transition from theoretical discussions to more empirical, structured methodologies. By examining historical examples where philosophical inquiry led to concrete disciplines, one could model potential trajectories for priorities research. For instance, studying how ethics branched into applied fields like bioethics might offer insights into how priorities research could develop.

Potential Impact and Applications

The primary beneficiaries of this analysis would be:

• Funders: Large philanthropic organizations could use these insights to allocate resources more effectively, avoiding misallocation due to outdated priorities.
• Researchers: A clearer understanding of possible paradigm shifts could guide future studies and highlight high-impact areas.
• The broader EA community: A more robust framework for prioritization could strengthen long-term strategies for addressing global challenges.

Execution Strategy

A possible approach could involve:

1. Reviewing historical cases where philosophy evolved into formal disciplines.
2. Consulting experts to validate analogies and identify relevant patterns.
3. Surveying funders and researchers to gauge expectations about future updates.
4. Modeling potential shifts in priorities and calculating the value of further research.

This project could provide a unique, interdisciplinary perspective on how priorities research might develop, helping stakeholders make more informed decisions.