Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs) - threats that could severely disrupt human civilization - are becoming more concerning as biotechnology advances. Currently, there's no systematic way to track worldwide capabilities that could either help prevent or accidentally cause such catastrophes, making it hard to prioritize risk-reduction efforts effectively.

Building a Global Capability Monitoring System

One approach could involve creating an organization that continuously tracks and evaluates biological capabilities relevant to GCBRs. This would involve:

• Developing standardized ways to measure different types of capabilities (from lab safety protocols to vaccine production capacity)
• Creating methods to estimate current global capabilities even when complete data isn't available
• Maintaining an updated database and producing regular reports highlighting trends and concerns

The system would track both technical factors (like where dangerous pathogen research occurs) and institutional factors (like how well biosecurity rules are enforced). Funders, policymakers, and researchers could use this information to make better decisions about where to focus biosecurity efforts.

Making It Work in the Real World

An initial version could start by:

1. Testing assessment methods on a few well-understood capability areas
2. Producing prototype reports to demonstrate value to potential supporters
3. Building relationships with key organizations in biosecurity

Over time, this could expand to cover more capability areas, develop predictive models, and establish partnerships with international agencies. The main challenges would include maintaining accuracy with incomplete data, keeping information secure, and ensuring the system remains unbiased and up-to-date as biotechnology evolves.

How This Complements Existing Efforts

While tools like the Global Health Security Index assess general health preparedness, this would focus specifically on capabilities that could cause or prevent global catastrophes. It would provide more technical, GCBR-specific data to inform broader policy work being done by organizations like the NTI Biosecurity Initiative. The unique value would come from systematic, ongoing assessment of the most high-risk biological capabilities worldwide.

Such a monitoring system could help identify critical gaps in global biosecurity and enable more targeted, effective interventions to reduce catastrophic risks.