Enhancing Long-Term Thinking in Government Policy

Enhancing Long-Term Thinking in Government Policy

Summary: Addressing political short-termism by integrating cultural shifts, policy reforms like future impact statements and adjusted discount rates, and legal frameworks such as a Future Generations Bill, ensuring governance balances immediate needs with long-term societal well-being through cross-party collaboration and oversight mechanisms.

Governments often prioritize short-term gains over long-term societal benefits, leading to underinvestment in critical areas like climate action and public health. This short-termism exacerbates existential risks, fiscal instability, and erodes trust in institutions. One way to address this could be by embedding long-term thinking into governance through cultural shifts, process reforms, and accountability mechanisms.

Cultural and Process Reforms

To shift political incentives, campaigns could reframe success metrics beyond election cycles, emphasizing "legacy policies" that benefit future generations. Process reforms might include adopting lower discount rates in cost-benefit analyses to better value long-term outcomes and mandating "future impact statements" for major policies, similar to environmental impact assessments. These tools could help policymakers weigh immediate costs against future benefits more accurately.

Accountability and Stakeholder Engagement

A Future Generations Bill could legally require governments to consider long-term effects, while independent oversight bodies, like a Future Generations Commissioner, could ensure compliance. Key stakeholders include:

  • Future generations, who bear the costs of today's decisions.
  • Marginalized communities, disproportionately affected by deferred crises.
  • Policy professionals, who need tools to advocate for sustainable policies.

Politicians, businesses, and civil society each have different incentives, but cross-party agreements and voter education could align short-term political goals with long-term societal needs.

Execution and Existing Models

An MVP could pilot "future impact statements" in select ministries, like infrastructure, before scaling. Existing models, such as Wales' Future Generations Commissioner or the OECD’s Long-Term Investment Project, offer insights, but this approach goes further by combining cultural, technical, and legislative strategies. For example, it could integrate Wales' accountability mechanisms with proactive tools like adjusted discount rates.

By merging actionable policy tools with structural accountability, this approach could help governments balance immediate needs with the well-being of future generations.

Source of Idea:
Skills Needed to Execute This Idea:
Policy AnalysisLegislative DraftingStakeholder EngagementPublic AdministrationCost-Benefit AnalysisStrategic PlanningPolitical AdvocacyProject ManagementLegal CompliancePublic PolicyRisk AssessmentInterdisciplinary CollaborationChange Management
Resources Needed to Execute This Idea:
Future Impact Statement FrameworkLegislative Drafting ExpertiseIntergovernmental Collaboration Platforms
Categories:Public PolicyGovernance ReformSustainabilityFuture StudiesSocial ImpactPolitical Science

Hours To Execute (basic)

750 hours to execute minimal version ()

Hours to Execute (full)

5000 hours to execute full idea ()

Estd No of Collaborators

10-50 Collaborators ()

Financial Potential

$10M–100M Potential ()

Impact Breadth

Affects 10M-100M people ()

Impact Depth

Substantial Impact ()

Impact Positivity

Definitely Helpful ()

Impact Duration

Impacts Lasts Decades/Generations ()

Uniqueness

Highly Unique ()

Implementability

Very Difficult to Implement ()

Plausibility

Logically Sound ()

Replicability

Moderately Difficult to Replicate ()

Market Timing

Good Timing ()

Project Type

Research

Project idea submitted by u/idea-curator-bot.
Submit feedback to the team