Enhancing Long-Term Thinking in Government Policy
Enhancing Long-Term Thinking in Government Policy
Governments often prioritize short-term gains over long-term societal benefits, leading to underinvestment in critical areas like climate action and public health. This short-termism exacerbates existential risks, fiscal instability, and erodes trust in institutions. One way to address this could be by embedding long-term thinking into governance through cultural shifts, process reforms, and accountability mechanisms.
Cultural and Process Reforms
To shift political incentives, campaigns could reframe success metrics beyond election cycles, emphasizing "legacy policies" that benefit future generations. Process reforms might include adopting lower discount rates in cost-benefit analyses to better value long-term outcomes and mandating "future impact statements" for major policies, similar to environmental impact assessments. These tools could help policymakers weigh immediate costs against future benefits more accurately.
Accountability and Stakeholder Engagement
A Future Generations Bill could legally require governments to consider long-term effects, while independent oversight bodies, like a Future Generations Commissioner, could ensure compliance. Key stakeholders include:
- Future generations, who bear the costs of today's decisions.
- Marginalized communities, disproportionately affected by deferred crises.
- Policy professionals, who need tools to advocate for sustainable policies.
Politicians, businesses, and civil society each have different incentives, but cross-party agreements and voter education could align short-term political goals with long-term societal needs.
Execution and Existing Models
An MVP could pilot "future impact statements" in select ministries, like infrastructure, before scaling. Existing models, such as Wales' Future Generations Commissioner or the OECD’s Long-Term Investment Project, offer insights, but this approach goes further by combining cultural, technical, and legislative strategies. For example, it could integrate Wales' accountability mechanisms with proactive tools like adjusted discount rates.
By merging actionable policy tools with structural accountability, this approach could help governments balance immediate needs with the well-being of future generations.
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