The relationship between economic growth and existential risk presents a critical yet understudied challenge in shaping humanity's long-term trajectory. While economic expansion can drive technologies that mitigate global threats, it may also accelerate potentially dangerous innovations. Currently, there's little systematic evidence to guide policymakers in balancing these competing dynamics.

Understanding the Growth-Risk Nexus

This research could explore how different types of economic growth - from GDP expansion to technological advancement - influence various existential risks like AI misalignment or climate change. The approach might involve:

• Categorizing growth patterns and risk types
• Mapping mechanisms connecting economic activity to global hazards
• Quantifying these relationships where possible

The work would build upon existing research like Toby Ord's risk assessments and World Bank analyses, but with a unique focus on the economic drivers behind catastrophic scenarios. Where current studies examine risks in isolation or growth benefits separately, this could provide integrated policy guidance.

Practical Implementation Path

A stepwise execution might begin with synthesizing existing knowledge across disciplines, followed by developing conceptual models of key mechanisms, and ultimately producing policy recommendations. A minimal viable product could be a working paper that identifies the strongest growth-risk connections and suggests initial policy implications.

Potential Impact and Applications

The findings could help governments design 'resilient growth' strategies, advise philanthropists on high-impact funding areas, and inform businesses about responsible innovation pathways. While primarily a research initiative, the work might support itself through grants, policy consulting, or partnerships with organizations focused on long-term thinking.

By bridging the gap between economic development and risk analysis, this type of research could offer practical tools for navigating the complex trade-offs between prosperity and safety in an increasingly interconnected world.