Accurate forecasting is crucial for effective decision-making across many fields, yet most people lack structured ways to improve their predictive abilities. While prediction markets exist, they often focus on short-term bets rather than skill development. There's an opportunity to create competitive, learning-focused environments where participants can refine their forecasting skills while having real stakes to incentivize accuracy.

How Prediction Tournaments Could Work

One approach would be to create structured competitions where participants:

Make forecasts on carefully selected questions (like economic indicators or project outcomes)
Put up small stakes (financial or reputational) to encourage serious participation
Receive detailed performance feedback and analytics over time

The system could cater to different needs - from casual participants wanting to improve their forecasting skills to professionals who need accurate predictions for decision-making. By combining financial incentives with learning tools and leaderboards, it might create more engagement than traditional prediction markets.

Potential Benefits and Applications

Such tournaments could serve multiple purposes:

Business teams could use them to identify their best forecasters for strategic planning
Individuals could develop better probabilistic thinking skills
Organizations might gain access to crowd-sourced predictions from skilled forecasters

The system might generate revenue through entry fees, premium analytics services, or sponsorships from companies interested in specific prediction topics.

Getting Started

A simple version could begin with small private tournaments using basic tools like spreadsheets, focusing on a few clear prediction questions. This would test core assumptions about participation and incentives before investing in more complex platforms. Over time, the system might evolve to include automated scoring, integration with prediction market data, and more sophisticated analytics.

This approach would distinguish itself from existing prediction platforms by emphasizing skill development through structured competition and real stakes, rather than functioning purely as a betting market or academic exercise.