Democratic institutions face a growing yet understudied threat from transformative artificial intelligence (TAI). While much research examines AI's economic impacts, its potential to accelerate democratic backsliding—the gradual erosion of democratic norms and processes—remains poorly understood. This gap is particularly concerning given recent democratic declines in the U.S. and other nations, combined with AI's expanding political applications.
One approach could involve systematically connecting political science research on democratic backsliding with emerging AI capabilities. This would entail:
Unlike existing democracy indices that measure current conditions, this would focus on anticipating future institutional vulnerabilities created by AI's political applications.
The research could progress through phased implementation:
A minimal version might focus solely on AI's impact through information ecosystems before expanding to examine effects on electoral systems, checks and balances, or civil society.
This interdisciplinary approach could offer several advantages over existing work:
By systematically mapping how AI capabilities might interact with known democratic vulnerabilities, this line of research could help develop more robust safeguards for democratic institutions in the AI era.
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