Many technologies that could mitigate existential risks or address global priorities fail to get developed because they lack commercial incentives. This is particularly true for biosecurity innovations like pandemic prevention tools, where the unpredictable nature of outbreaks makes them financially unattractive for private investment.

The Power of Advance-Market Commitments

One way to address this market failure could be through advance-market commitments (AMCs) - legally binding agreements where funders guarantee future purchases of successfully developed technologies. These commitments would target high-impact areas selected through EA principles, creating concrete incentives for research and development.

• Funders commit to buying specified quantities at fixed prices, creating a guaranteed market
• Product specifications would incorporate safety and benefit-maximization criteria
• Payments could be structured to reward early developers and responsible deployment

Building the Right Incentives

For this approach to work, it would need to align incentives across different stakeholders. Researchers would gain financial certainty for high-risk projects, while funders could achieve high-impact outcomes at predictable costs. Governments and health systems would get access to critical preparedness tools without bearing full development risks. A key advantage is that this model could be tested with a single, well-defined technology target (like a broad-spectrum coronavirus vaccine) before scaling up.

Learning From Existing Models

While similar to existing programs like Gavi's vaccine AMCs or BARDA's antimicrobial program, this approach would differ by explicitly incorporating EA principles in technology selection and specifications. It could combine the strengths of advance purchasing commitments with careful cause prioritization to target the most neglected yet highest-impact areas.

By creating concrete financial incentives for technologies that markets naturally neglect, this approach could accelerate development of solutions for some of humanity's most pressing risks. An initial small-scale implementation could demonstrate viability before expanding to address multiple priority areas.