Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) present complex challenges for researchers, funders, and policymakers who need to allocate limited resources effectively. Currently, there's no standardized way to assess different GCR interventions based on their risk characteristics, making it difficult to balance portfolios or identify complementary approaches across domains.

A Framework for Comparing Risks

One potential solution could involve developing a classification system that evaluates GCR projects along multiple dimensions:

• Probability of success versus failure
• Potential for positive impact versus unintended consequences
• Expected timeframe for results
• Degree of uncertainty in outcomes

This framework might help organizations visualize their risk exposure, identify concentration in certain areas, and build portfolios matching their risk tolerance. For researchers, it could highlight where new projects might fill gaps in the risk landscape.

Practical Implementation

An initial version could start with a simple spreadsheet template scoring projects on 3-5 key risk factors. More advanced versions might include:

• Visual mapping tools showing portfolio distributions
• Comparative metrics across different GCR domains
• Guidelines for balancing high-risk/high-reward projects with more certain ones

The approach would differ from existing cause-area classifications by focusing on decision-relevant risk characteristics rather than just research topics or funding categories.

Potential Benefits and Challenges

Such a system could help align incentives by creating transparent standards for risk assessment. Funders might better understand trade-offs, while researchers could position their work more clearly in the broader landscape. However, maintaining accurate assessments over time and preventing score manipulation would require careful design - perhaps through third-party evaluations and regular updates.

While the core framework might remain a public good, supporting services like customized analyses or training could potentially sustain the initiative long-term.