Modernizing Disease Risk Assessment with Updated Historical Data

Summary: Historical disease data is less useful today due to modern globalization and urbanization. This idea proposes analyzing how factors like air travel alter disease spread compared to past outbreaks, using comparative studies and simulations to create adjusted risk models for better pandemic preparedness.

The Problem with Historical Pathogen Data

Historical data about diseases might not be as useful today because the world has changed so much. In the past, people traveled less, cities were smaller, and countries weren’t as connected. Now, with airplanes, megacities, and global trade, diseases can spread faster and wider than ever. This makes it hard to predict risks accurately using old data—it’s like using a map from the 1800s to navigate a modern subway system. If we don’t adjust for these changes, we might underestimate threats like pandemics or overreact to smaller risks.

A Systematic Approach to Modernizing Risk Assessment

One way to tackle this problem is by analyzing how today’s world changes disease spread compared to the past. This could involve:

Comparing outbreaks: Studying diseases like COVID-19 alongside historical pandemics (e.g., the 1918 flu) to see how factors like air travel or urban density alter transmission.
Simulating scenarios: Using models to test how a past disease might spread today, or how a modern pathogen would have behaved in earlier centuries.
Updating frameworks: Creating guidelines to adjust historical data for modern realities, helping governments and scientists make better decisions.

For example, if historical data suggests a flu strain would infect 10% of a population, but modern travel patterns could double that, the adjusted estimate would be far more useful for planning.

Why It Matters and How to Start

Governments, health organizations, and even businesses could use these insights to prepare for outbreaks more effectively. A simpler version of this project might focus on just one or two diseases (like COVID-19 and the 1918 flu) to demonstrate how adjustments work. Over time, the analysis could expand to cover other pathogens or factors like climate change or vaccine distribution.

Existing tools like the GIDEON database or IHME models already track diseases, but they rarely account for how modern society changes risks. By bridging that gap, this approach could make pandemic planning smarter and more realistic.

Source of Idea:

This idea was taken from https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NzqaiopAJuJ37tpJz/project-ideas-in-biosecurity-for-eas and further developed using an algorithm.

Skills Needed to Execute This Idea:

EpidemiologyData ModelingStatistical AnalysisPublic Health ResearchHistorical Data InterpretationSimulation DevelopmentRisk AssessmentComparative AnalysisDisease Transmission AnalysisUrbanization Impact StudiesGlobal Health PolicyScenario Planning

Resources Needed to Execute This Idea:

Historical Disease DatabasesComputational Modeling SoftwareGlobal Travel DataUrban Density Datasets

Categories:EpidemiologyPublic HealthData ScienceRisk AssessmentHistorical AnalysisDisease Modeling

Hours To Execute (basic)

150 hours to execute minimal version ()

Hours to Execute (full)

2000 hours to execute full idea ()

Estd No of Collaborators

10-50 Collaborators ()

Financial Potential

$10M–100M Potential ()

Impact Breadth

Affects 10M-100M people ()

Impact Depth

Substantial Impact ()

Impact Positivity

Probably Helpful ()

Impact Duration

Impacts Lasts Decades/Generations ()

Uniqueness

Moderately Unique ()

Implementability

Very Difficult to Implement ()

Plausibility

Logically Sound ()

Replicability

Complex to Replicate ()

Market Timing

Perfect Timing ()

Project Type

Research

Project idea submitted by u/idea-curator-bot.