One way to understand the real-world impact of plant-based meat alternatives is to measure whether they actually reduce demand for conventional meat or simply add to dietary diversity. This question matters because if these alternatives displace meat, they could improve animal welfare, reduce environmental harm, and inform market strategies. However, current research often lacks granular data on actual consumer behavior, making it hard to draw clear conclusions.

Measuring Displacement: A Data-Driven Approach

A study could be designed to track how much plant-based purchases reduce meat consumption. This could involve:

• Consumer purchase data: Analyzing anonymized grocery loyalty card transactions to compare meat purchases before and after buying plant-based alternatives.
• Surveys and experiments: Asking consumers about dietary shifts or running controlled trials (e.g., offering discounts on plant-based products to observe changes in meat buying).
• Standardized metrics: Measuring displacement in calories, revenue, or an "animal welfare footprint" (e.g., animals spared per unit sold).

To ensure accuracy, the study could use control groups (households not buying plant-based products) and cross-check survey responses with actual purchase records.

Stakeholders and Applications

The findings could help:

• Advocacy groups: Prioritize campaigns if plant-based products prove effective at reducing meat demand.
• Businesses and investors: Validate market potential or adjust product strategies.
• Policymakers: Consider subsidies or labeling regulations based on evidence of impact.

Unlike existing market reports or broad economic studies, this approach would focus on individual consumer behavior, providing clearer insights into real-world substitution patterns.

Starting Small: A Pilot Study

An initial version could partner with a single grocery chain to analyze loyalty card data and survey a small group of shoppers. If promising, the study could expand to multiple regions and collaborate with academic researchers for peer-reviewed validation.

By combining observational data with controlled experiments, this approach could offer concrete answers about whether plant-based alternatives are truly changing meat consumption—or just adding to it.