Despite decades without nuclear weapon use since 1945, the persistent risk remains a global concern. While deterrence theory often explains this pattern, the role of public norms remains understudied. There's little systematic evidence about how strongly populations oppose nuclear use, whether this translates into political constraints, or how these norms interact with non-proliferation strategies. Understanding this could help strengthen targeted advocacy or reveal where alternative approaches are needed.

Mapping the Nuclear Taboo

One way to address this gap would be through comprehensive cross-national surveys measuring:

• Baseline opposition to nuclear use across different scenarios (first strike vs. retaliation)
• Intensity of opposition (from mild preference to absolute taboo)
• Public willingness to sanction leaders who authorize use
• Perceptions about the legitimacy of nuclear threats

Strategic Implementation

A phased approach might begin with developing scenario-based survey tools and pilot testing in 2-3 countries. After refining the methodology, nationally representative surveys could be conducted in nuclear weapons states, key non-nuclear states like Germany and Japan, and states of proliferation concern. The final phase could combine statistical analysis with historical case studies to develop policy frameworks.

For a simpler starting point, a minimum viable product could involve pilot surveys in two nuclear and two non-nuclear states, comparing attitudes toward different use scenarios. This could test key assumptions about whether public opinion varies systematically and whether it correlates with historical decision patterns.

Bridging Research and Policy

This approach would differ from existing surveys like Pew Global Attitudes by focusing specifically on use thresholds rather than general non-proliferation opinions. Unlike advocacy group research, it would maintain an academic rigor while producing practical insights for policymakers assessing domestic constraints, non-proliferation advocates targeting messaging, and international organizations monitoring nuclear risks.

By systematically measuring the nuclear taboo's public foundations, this research could inform more effective strategies for reducing nuclear risks through normative channels, while complementing traditional deterrence approaches.