Many decisions—whether in policy, business, or technology—fail because people underestimate or misunderstand their consequences. This "cluelessness" leads to unintended outcomes, from environmental damage to missed opportunities. One way to address this could be by studying historical cases where predictions went wrong, identifying patterns, and creating tools to help decision-makers avoid similar mistakes.

Understanding Cluelessness Through History

By analyzing past misjudgments, recurring themes emerge. For example, Malthusian predictions of population collapse ignored technological advancements in agriculture, while policies like Prohibition in the U.S. led to organized crime instead of reducing alcohol use. These cases reveal common pitfalls:

• Misestimating magnitude: Underestimating how big an impact could be.
• Ignoring feedback loops: Overlooking how systems react to changes.
• Over-relying on linear thinking: Assuming trends continue unchanged.

A structured review of such cases could help categorize types of cluelessness and provide a framework to assess risks in new decisions.

Turning Insights Into Action

The research could be organized into phases:

1. MVP: Start with 10-20 high-impact cases, develop a preliminary taxonomy, and publish findings.
2. Expansion: Grow the repository to 50+ cases with expert input and create practical tools like checklists.
3. Implementation: Partner with institutions to test the framework in real-world scenarios.

Potential beneficiaries include policymakers, businesses, and educators, all of whom could use these insights to make better-informed choices.

How It Fits With Existing Work

While books like Thinking, Fast and Slow explore cognitive biases, this approach adds a historical and systemic perspective. Unlike The Black Swan, which focuses on rare events, it examines more common misjudgments. The goal is not just to explain past mistakes but to provide actionable ways to anticipate and mitigate them.

By learning from history, decision-makers could reduce costly errors and seize opportunities they might otherwise overlook.