Fermi estimates—rough, back-of-the-envelope calculations for uncertain quantities—are a critical but underdeveloped skill in business, policy, and research. While precise data is often unavailable, few tools exist to systematically train or evaluate this ability. Existing resources either focus narrowly on forecasting or lack interactivity, leaving a gap for an engaging platform that combines practice, feedback, and community-driven learning.

How the Platform Could Work

One way to address this gap could involve a web-based platform with several core features:

• Daily Challenges: Wordle-style questions with known answers (e.g., "How many farm animals exist today?"), scored based on logarithmic accuracy.
• Skill-Building Modules: Courses teaching techniques like decomposition and anchor values, ending with tests to validate progress.
• Crowdsourcing Hub: Users submit open-ended questions (e.g., "Plastic waste in the ocean by 2030?"), and the community collaboratively builds models and aggregates estimates.
• Gamification: Leaderboards, streaks, and peer comparisons to encourage consistent participation.

Potential beneficiaries range from professionals like consultants and researchers to students and hobbyists looking to improve their quantitative reasoning.

Execution and Differentiation

A phased approach could start with a simple MVP offering daily challenges and a leaderboard, using pre-existing datasets for questions. Later phases might introduce crowdsourcing, expert-reviewed questions, and certification for institutional use. To stand out from existing tools like Metaculus (focused on forecasting) or Guesstimate (a modeling tool without gamification), this platform could blend education, competition, and real-world problem-solving. For example:

• Unlike prediction platforms, it would emphasize foundational estimation skills applicable beyond time-bound forecasts.
• Unlike static quizzes, it would leverage community input to refine answers and validate open-ended estimates through consensus or meta-prediction.

By integrating learning, gamification, and crowdsourcing, this approach could fill a unique niche in quantitative literacy tools while addressing a widely overlooked skill gap.