The absence of clear data on how vaccine properties like efficacy and duration affect demand and rollout in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) creates challenges for organizations funding vaccine development. Open Philanthropy and similar groups aim to maximize health impact per dollar spent, but without reliable insights into which vaccine qualities matter most in LMICs, resources risk being misallocated. This could mean investing in vaccines that, while technically strong, fail to achieve high uptake or quick distribution in these regions.

The Core Idea

One way to address this gap is by analyzing historical vaccine rollout data from LMICs to uncover patterns between vaccine properties (efficacy, duration) and outcomes like demand and distribution speed. This could involve combining quantitative data—such as uptake rates for different vaccines—with qualitative insights from healthcare workers or policymakers. For instance, examining whether a 10% increase in efficacy correlates with faster adoption in South Asia could help prioritize future vaccine candidates. An MVP might start with globally available datasets (e.g., flu vaccines) before expanding to region-specific data through partnerships with local health ministries or NGOs.

Stakeholders and Applications

Three key groups could benefit from these insights:

• Funders like Open Philanthropy, who could direct resources toward vaccines with properties proven to drive uptake in LMICs.
• LMIC governments, which often lack the capacity for such analysis but need evidence to guide procurement.
• Vaccine developers, who might adjust R&D priorities based on demand patterns, even if proprietary data sharing is initially a hurdle.

Distinguishing the Approach

While existing research, like WHO reports, focuses on vaccine efficacy in isolation, this approach would tie properties directly to real-world demand. For example, Gavi’s market analyses emphasize pricing, but non-price factors (e.g., how long protection lasts) might matter just as much in LMICs. Academic studies often overlook LMIC-specific dynamics, making this project’s combined quantitative-qualitative method a potential advance.

By clarifying which vaccine traits actually influence rollout success, this could help allocate funding more effectively—potentially saving more lives per dollar spent.