The threat of a nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack presents a unique and understudied risk. While the likelihood of such an event is uncertain, its potential to cripple power grids, communication systems, and other critical infrastructure could lead to severe societal disruptions. Currently, there’s limited public research addressing the full scope of EMP risks—especially concerning long-term or existential consequences. A structured analysis of these risks could help policymakers, researchers, and defense strategists prepare more effectively.

Understanding and Assessing EMP Risks

One way to approach this problem is by systematically evaluating three key areas: the likelihood of an EMP attack, its potential impacts, and possible mitigation strategies. This could involve reviewing existing research (such as government reports and academic studies) and consulting experts in fields like nuclear physics, disaster resilience, and defense strategy. For example, historical data on conflict escalation and rogue-state behavior could help estimate the probability of an EMP attack occurring, while engineering studies might reveal which infrastructure components are most vulnerable. Structured forecasting platforms like Metaculus could also be used to crowdsource predictions on EMP-related risks, refining estimates over time.

Potential Impact and Mitigation Strategies

If an EMP attack were to happen, the consequences could range from localized blackouts to cascading infrastructure failures, leading to supply chain breakdowns, food shortages, or even long-term societal collapse. To mitigate these risks, possible strategies include:

• Infrastructure hardening: Upgrading critical electrical and communication systems to withstand EMP effects.
• Diplomatic measures: Reducing geopolitical tensions to lower the likelihood of an attack.
• Emergency planning: Developing response protocols for governments and industries in case of an EMP-related disaster.

Because much of this research overlaps with national security concerns, the project would need to navigate limited data availability by focusing on publicly accessible sources and expert consensus-building methods like the Delphi technique.

Next Steps and Implementation

A feasible first step could be a literature review consolidating existing knowledge on EMP risks, followed by targeted expert interviews to fill gaps in understanding. This groundwork could lead to a report or series of forecasts that highlight key risks and actionable recommendations. Policymakers, defense agencies, and longtermist researchers might find these insights particularly useful in shaping prevention and response strategies. If successful, this effort could help prioritize resources effectively, ensuring EMP risks are neither overestimated nor neglected.

Given the current lack of centralized research on EMPs as an existential threat, this project could provide much-needed clarity—turning uncertainty into informed decision-making.