Understanding the drivers of autocratization—the erosion of democratic institutions—is crucial for designing effective interventions, yet existing research often lacks rigorous analysis of whether these trends share common causes across time or vary by context. A data-driven approach could clarify whether modern democratic backsliding follows predictable patterns or requires context-specific solutions.

A Method for Mapping Autocratization

The project would compare historical and contemporary waves of autocratization (like the interwar period versus recent decades) using statistical analysis and case studies. Key questions might include: Are current declines statistically distinct from past waves? Do economic shocks, elite fragmentation, or other factors consistently predict backsliding? Datasets like V-Dem, Freedom House, and World Bank indicators could be combined with qualitative insights to test hypotheses.

• Policy Relevance: Findings could help tailor sanctions, aid conditions, or advocacy to the most influential drivers.
• Academic Contribution: Moves beyond descriptive trends to test causal theories using interdisciplinary methods.

Execution and Validation

An initial study could analyze 10–15 countries across two autocratization waves, focusing on a single variable (e.g., inequality). Advanced techniques like synthetic control methods might help isolate causation, while case studies could validate outliers. Challenges like quantifying elite behavior might require proxies (e.g., party coalition data).

By linking data to actionable insights, this approach could shift speculative debates about democracy's decline toward evidence-based strategies.