One challenge in education policy is understanding how expanding access to schooling affects entire economies, not just individuals. Most research focuses on the partial effects—like how education changes a single person's earnings—while ignoring broader impacts on wages, jobs, and productivity across regions or countries. If these broader effects are weak or negative (e.g., if more educated workers lead to lower wages due to oversupply), education expansions might not deliver the expected economic benefits.
One way to address this gap is to combine existing research with new data to estimate the general equilibrium (GE) effects of education expansions in low- and middle-income countries. This could involve:
By comparing micro-level studies with economy-wide data, this approach could reveal whether education expansions actually boost overall incomes or inadvertently create new labor market challenges.
The findings could help:
Local partnerships could ensure data quality, while workshops and policy briefs might help translate complex results into actionable recommendations.
A pilot study in one country (e.g., Ghana) could test the methodology before expanding to other regions. Key questions include:
If successful, this work could fill a critical gap in how education’s macroeconomic impacts are measured, helping avoid unintended consequences like graduate unemployment.
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