Synthesis of debate between experts using LLMs to generate predictions

Summary: A gathering of diverse experts would engage in moderated discussions to generate insights on event outcomes, creating rich, varied data that feeds into an AI for more accurate predictions. The approach leverages crowd wisdom and rewards valuable contributors, potentially integrating a token-based blockchain system for scalability and participation incentives.

A group of people would be gathered, mostly experts in a field we're trying to predict. For example when predicting soccer match between Barcelona and Manchester City, various football experts, fans, bettors, even statisticians could be there.

They would chat about the upcoming match or anything we want to predict to predict its result. The chat would be probably done with a moderator so it's usefulness would be ensured. We need a chat full of arguments and reacting to each other, without personal attacks or shallowness.

Next, this conversation history would be fed into a LLM that would judge the arguments and make the prediction.

Why this could work:

wisdom of the crowd is a successful concept of predicting things
variability of opinions and arguments in the data
variability of data sources in the data
variability of subjective context in the data

And most importantly, an amazing new data would be created that is very hard to get elsewhere.

Members who the LLM considers the most important for the prediction might get some money.

This could be scaled into a Numerai-like crypto project (need a token for participation, staking the token, being paid in the token)

Source of Idea:

I am researching using LLMs for predictions. I think they are able to make incredible predictions and they will only get better. The only issue is with the data for them so that's what my idea is solving.

Skills Needed to Execute This Idea:

Facilitation SkillsData AnalysisNatural Language ProcessingStatistical ModelingCrowdsourcing StrategiesMarket ResearchToken EconomicsCommunity EngagementArgumentation AnalysisPredictive AnalyticsMachine LearningCryptocurrency IntegrationEvent ModerationInterdisciplinary Collaboration

Categories:ResearchContent Creation

Hours To Execute (basic)

300 hours to execute minimal version ()

Hours to Execute (full)

300 hours to execute full idea ()

Estd No of Collaborators

10-50 Collaborators ()

Financial Potential

$10M–100M Potential ()

Impact Breadth

Affects 100K-10M people ()

Impact Depth

Moderate Impact ()

Impact Positivity

Probably Helpful ()

Impact Duration

Impacts Lasts 3-10 Years ()

Uniqueness

Moderately Unique ()

Implementability

Very Difficult to Implement ()

Plausibility

Questionable ()

Replicability

Moderately Difficult to Replicate ()

Market Timing

Good Timing ()

Project Type

Other

Project idea submitted by u/man_of_ideas.